A semi-Markov model for stroke with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring.

This paper presents a parametric method of fitting semi-Markov models with piecewise-constant hazards in the presence of left, right and interval censoring. We investigate transition intensities in a three-state illness-death model with no recovery. We relax the Markov assumption by adjusting the intensity for the transition from state 2 (illness) to state 3 (death) for the time spent in state 2 through a time-varying covariate. This involves the exact time of the transition from state 1 (healthy) to state 2. When the data are subject to left or interval censoring, this time is unknown. In the estimation of the likelihood, we take into account interval censoring by integrating out all possible times for the transition from state 1 to state 2. For left censoring, we use an Expectation-Maximisation inspired algorithm. A simulation study reflects the performance of the method. The proposed combination of statistical procedures provides great flexibility. We illustrate the method in an application by using data on stroke onset for the older population from the UK Medical Research Council Cognitive Function and Ageing Study

Synthetic Food Colors and Neurobehavioral Hazards: The View from Environmental Health Research

Background: The proposition that synthetic food colors can induce adverse behavioral effects in children was first enunciated in 1975 by Feingold [Why Your Child Is Hyperactive. New York:Random House (1975)], who asserted that elevated sensitivity to food additives underlies the signs of hyperactivity observed in some children. Although the evidence suggested that some unknown proportion of children did respond to synthetic food colors, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) interpreted the evidence as inconclusive. A study published in 2007 [McCann et al. Food additives and hyperactive behaviour in 3-year-old and 8/9-year-old children in the community: a randomised, double-blinded, placebo-controlled trial. Lancet 370:1560–1567 (2007)] drew renewed attention to the hypothesis because of the study’s size and scope. It led the FDA to review the evidence, hold a public hearing, and seek the advice of its Food Advisory Committee. In preparation for the hearing, the FDA reviewed the available evidence and concluded that it did not warrant further agency action

EQ-5D in skin conditions: an assessment of validity and responsiveness

Aims and objectives This systematic literature review aims to assess the reliability, validity and responsiveness of three widely used generic preference-based measures of health-related quality of life (HRQL), i.e., EQ-5D, Health Utility Index 3 (HUI3) and SF-6D in patients with skin conditions. Methods A systematic search was conducted to identify studies reporting health state utility values obtained using EQ-5D, SF-6D, or HUI3 alongside other HRQL measures or clinical indices for patients with skin conditions. Data on test-retest analysis for reliability, known group differences or correlation and regression analyses for validity, and change over time or responsiveness indices analysis were extracted and reviewed. Results A total of 16 papers reporting EQ-5D utilities in people with skin conditions were included in the final review. No papers for SF-6D and HUI3 were found. Evidence of reliability was not found for any of these measures. The majority of studies included in the review (12 out of 16) examined patients with plaque psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis and the remaining four studies examined patients with either acne, hidradenitis suppurativa, hand eczema, or venous leg ulcers. The findings were generally positive in terms of performance of EQ-5D. Six studies showed that EQ-5D was able to reflect differences between severity groups and only one reported differences that were not statistically significant. Four studies found that EQ-5D detected differences between patients and the general population, and differences were statistically different for three of them. Further, moderate-to-strong correlation coefficients were found between EQ-5D and other skin-specific HRQL measures in four studies. Eight studies showed that EQ-5D was able to detect change in HRQL appropriately over time and the changes were statistically significant in seven studies. Conclusions Overall, the validity and responsiveness of the EQ-5D was found to be good in people with skin diseases, especially plaque psoriasis or psoriatic arthritis. No evidence on SF-6D and HUI3 was available to enable any judgments to be made on their performance

Guidelines on "Standards of management of idiopathic scoliosis with corrective braces in everyday clinics and in clinical research": SOSORT Consensus 2008

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Reported failure rates,(defined based on percentage of cases progressing to surgery) of corrective bracing for idiopathic scoliosis are highly variable. This may be due to the quality of the brace itself, but also of the patient care during treatment. The latter is sometimes neglected, even though it is considered a main determinant of good results among conservative experts of SOSORT. The aim of this paper was to develop and verify the Consensus on management of scoliosis patients treated with braces</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We followed a Delphi process in four steps, distributing and gradually changing according to the results a set of recommendations: we involved the SOSORT Board twice, then all SOSORT members twice, with a Pre-Meeting Questionnaire (PMQ), and during a Consensus Session at the SOSORT Athens Meeting with a Meeting Questionnaire (MQ). We set a 90% agreement as the minimum to be reached.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We had a 71% response rate to PMQ, and 66.7% to MQ. Since the PMQ we had a good agreement (no answers below 72% – 70.2% over 90%). With the MQ the agreement consistently increased for all the answers previously below 90% (no answers below 83%, 75% over 90%). With increasing experience in bracing all numerical criteria tended to become more strict. We finally produced a set of 14 recommendations, grouped in 6 Domains (Experience/competence, Behaviours, Prescription, Construction, Brace Check, Follow-up).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>The Consensus permits establishment of recommendations concerning the standards of management of idiopathic scoliosis with bracing, with the aim to increase efficacy and compliance to treatment. The SOSORT recommends to professionals engaged in patient care to follow the guidelines of this Consensus in their clinical practice. The SOSORT criteria should also be followed in clinical research studies to achieve a minimum quality of care. If the aim is to verify the efficacy of bracing these criteria should be companions of the methodological research criteria for bracing proposed by other societies.</p

Fluctuation scaling in complex systems: Taylor's law and beyond

Complex systems consist of many interacting elements which participate in some dynamical process. The activity of various elements is often different and the fluctuation in the activity of an element grows monotonically with the average activity. This relationship is often of the form "$fluctuations \approx const.\times average^\alpha$", where the exponent $\alpha$ is predominantly in the range $[1/2, 1]$. This power law has been observed in a very wide range of disciplines, ranging from population dynamics through the Internet to the stock market and it is often treated under the names \emph{Taylor's law} or \emph{fluctuation scaling}. This review attempts to show how general the above scaling relationship is by surveying the literature, as well as by reporting some new empirical data and model calculations. We also show some basic principles that can underlie the generality of the phenomenon. This is followed by a mean-field framework based on sums of random variables. In this context the emergence of fluctuation scaling is equivalent to some corresponding limit theorems. In certain physical systems fluctuation scaling can be related to finite size scaling.Comment: 33 pages, 20 figures, 2 tables, submitted to Advances in Physic

Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic

Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size $N$. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size $N$ tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as $N \to \infty$ but more slowly than $N^{-1/2}$. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.Comment: Revised; 34 pages; 6 figure

Modeling the scaling properties of human mobility

While the fat tailed jump size and the waiting time distributions characterizing individual human trajectories strongly suggest the relevance of the continuous time random walk (CTRW) models of human mobility, no one seriously believes that human traces are truly random. Given the importance of human mobility, from epidemic modeling to traffic prediction and urban planning, we need quantitative models that can account for the statistical characteristics of individual human trajectories. Here we use empirical data on human mobility, captured by mobile phone traces, to show that the predictions of the CTRW models are in systematic conflict with the empirical results. We introduce two principles that govern human trajectories, allowing us to build a statistically self-consistent microscopic model for individual human mobility. The model not only accounts for the empirically observed scaling laws but also allows us to analytically predict most of the pertinent scaling exponents

A minimally invasive immunocytochemical approach to early detection of oral squamous cell carcinoma and dysplasia

Squamous dysplasia of the oral cavity indicates increased risk of progression to squamous cell carcinoma (SCC). An important advance would be the development of a minimally invasive assay for identification of oral SCC and dysplasia. We have investigated the suitability in this context of immunostaining oral smears for minichromosome maintainance proteins (MCMs), sensitive and specific biomarkers of cell cycle entry. Immunohistochemical examination of 66 oral tissue samples showed a greater frequency of Mcm-2 expression in surface layers of moderate/severe dysplasia and SCC compared to benign keratosis/mild dysplasia. Immunocytochemistry for Mcm-2/Mcm-5 was performed on 101 oral smears. Conventional smears included 23 from normal mucosa, benign proliferative disease and mild dysplasia, all of which were MCM negative. Of 52 conventional smears of SCC tissue samples, 18 were inadequate. However, MCM-positive cells were present in 33/34 adequate samples. Of 26 liquid-based cytology smears, 19 out of 20 smears from SCC were adequate and all were MCM positive. Six smears from benign lesions were adequate and MCM negative. We conclude that MCMs are promising markers for early detection of oral SCC and dysplasia, particularly in a liquid-based cytology platform. Detection of MCMs would be amenable to automation and potentially applicable in the developing world. Further studies are now warranted

A randomized controlled trial reporting functional outcomes of cognitive-behavioural therapy in medication‑treated adults with ADHD and comorbid psychopathology

Studies assessing psychological treatment of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) in adults are increasingly reported. However, functional outcomes are often neglected in favour of symptom outcomes. We investigated functional outcomes in 95 adults with ADHD who were already treated with medication and randomized to receive treatment as usual (TAU/MED) or psychological treatment (CBT/MED) using a cognitive–behavioural programme, R&R2ADHD, which employs both group and individual modalities. RATE-S functional outcomes associated with ADHD symptoms, social functioning, emotional control and antisocial behaviour were given at baseline, end of treatment and three-month follow-up. The Total composite score of these scales is associated with life satisfaction. In addition, independent evaluator ratings of clinicians who were blind to treatment arm were obtained on the Clinical Global Impression scale at each time point. CBT/MED showed overall (combined outcome at end of treatment and 3-month follow-up) significantly greater functional improvement on all scales. Post-group treatment effects were maintained at follow-up with the exception of emotional control and the Total composite scales, which continued to improve. The largest treatment effect was for the RATE-S Total composite scale, associated with life satisfaction. CGI significantly correlated with all outcomes except for social functioning scale at follow-up. The study provides further evidence for the effectiveness of R&R2ADHD and demonstrates the importance of measuring functional outcomes. The key mechanism associated with improved functional outcomes is likely to be behavioural control